Technically the VSF member priority determines the possibility of a member device being elected as the Commander and, consequently, the member with assigned higher priority is more likely to be elected as the Commander (but the election process [*] analyzes other parameters as well)...so, to understand what Switch is more likely to become the VSF Commander, it's necessary to exactly understand how the VSF topology changed (e.g. how was the boot sequence, what was the first switch to go online after the power outage...).
Some discussion about the election process was available through this whole thread.
[*] the VSF Commander election occurs each time the VSF topology changes (examples of topology changes are: the VSF is established, the Commander device fails or is removed, the VSF link goes down causing a VSF split, independent VSFs merge, the stack reboots).